So I was eliminated on day one of the Reno tournament and I couldn’t have been less prepared for the event. I flew in the night before with about 15-20 other poker players who were on the same Southwest flight, checked in, and then bought into the tournament that night.
After that I went to my room, unable to sleep because of a terrible schedule that I’ve been on, so I was online till about 4:00am.
Then in the morning I just didn’t feel like waking up. I ended up sleeping through the entire first level and showed up for level 2. When I do that, I rarely ever do well. I showed up antsy, groggy, and all around felt pretty sloppy with my play.
Nonetheless, I was able to get my original starting stack up to over $50,000 with some aggressive betting on the flop. The I lost one key hand, and it was pretty much over for me and my psyche.
A player raised my big blind and I called with two red fives. The flop was 6h 4s 3h. I checked, my opponent bet, and I pushed all in making for a $30,000+ pot. He called with Ah Jh and hit a Jack on the turn. That got me back down to $15,000 and suddenly I didn’t want to be there any more.
More sloppy play got me down to 2550 with 300-600 blinds and a 75 ante. I was all in on the BB with A-2 vs. A-K and spiked a 2 on the river to double up. About 15-20 minutes later I was sitting on 35,000 in chips!
I then made a sloppy call with K-10 from the BB, defending against an all in push by a short stack on the button who ended up having me dominated with A-10.
I was still ok until this hand: Everyone folded to me on the button so I limped with 6d 3d. I had a feeling one of the blinds was going to get frisky so I decided not to raise.
The flop was Qs Jc 10h. Both players checked to me and I bet 1500. The SB thought for quite a while and the longer he thought, the more clear it became to me that he had a weak J or Q. I planned on taking this pot from him with any one of a million cards on the turn or the river.
He called, and the turn was a 7. He checked, and I bet 2500, planning on building the pot a little bit before bluffing him on the river. He called. The river was another 7 and he checked again. This time I bet $10,000 and he check-raised me all in. I folded obviously and felt pretty unlucky when I saw his hand… J-7 off suit. I had the absolutely correct read on the hand, but he hit a well disguised 7 on the turn and I wasn’t able to catch a 9, K, A, or anything on the river to bluff him out.
After that I got moved to a new table and went all in with 55 from the BB vs. AA. I lost that hand, and honestly never felt like I was part of this tournament or had my head into it at all.
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Poker players all across America have been duped by what is nothing more than a marketing ploy and many you have bought in hook, line, and sinker. I believe it was Jack McLelland who started this trend and it’s caught on with tournaments all across the country. I’m talking about starting with double chips in tournaments. The idea is that there is “more play” yet that statement is completely ludicrous and unfounded. The amount of play in a tournament is based solely on the tournament structure and the amount of chips you actually start with has no bearing on that at all. Yet, I was shocked to hear so many pros I spoke with recently failing to grasp it.
You could start people off with a million in chips, but if you raise the blinds in correlation to the stack sizes it makes absolutely NO difference. Examples:
A typical structure starting with $20,000 in chips:
50-100
100-200
100-200 (25 ante)
150-300 (25 ante)
200-400 (50 ante)
300-600 (75 ante)
400-800 (100 ante)
Now, here is what the structure should look like with $10,000 in chips:
25-50
50-100
75-150
100-200
100-200 (25 ante)
150-300 (25 ante)
200-400 (50 ante)
As you can see, by level six the structure with $10,000 in chips is exactly half of the $20,000 starting chip tournament.
I think the reason some pros believed that the $20,000 in starting chips is better is because they forget what a good $10,000 structure looks like. It’s not the starting chips that matter, it’s the structure!
Who knows, maybe someone will start a tournament with $40,000 in starting chips, whoopee!!!! Of course they would start the blinds at 100-200 and basically double everything anyway, but I’m certain they could fool plenty of players into thinking that there tournament has “more play.”
Don’t get me wrong, starting with double chips isn’t a “bad thing” it’s just completely irrelevant and meaningless. Seriously, You could start players off with $100,000 each, but if you start the blinds at 2500-5000 it won’t be any different than starting them off with $10,000 in chips.
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After I got knocked, too late to fly home I was extremely bored so I went to my room to surf the net for a bit. That got boring, so I decided to head to the bowling alley to see who was down there. It seemed like everyone was there.
I quickly agreed to a match with J.C Tran, Nam Le, the Grinder, and “Serb,” Nenand Medic. I was getting 10 pins from J.C. and Nam, and played the other two even since they said they bowl around 115 also.
Well, my first two balls were beautiful and I went strike, strike! I followed that up with a 9/ and ended up bowling an astounding 167. Everyone was quick to call me a hustler as I destroyed them all, but I explained to them that I recently played bowling on the Nintendo Wii and apparently, it helped!
Of course, in the next game I came back to Earth with a paltry 102 which lost to everyone. In my last set, we played a team match, me and Kirk Morrison versus J.C. Tran and Nam Le getting a 25 pin spot.
Kirk said he was pretty good so I was anxious to see him in action…. dude, he threw the first ball so far into the gutter it looked as though he was aiming for the wrong lane. It was awful! I quickly asked Kirk if he was working for J.C. and Nam! (kidding of course)
After that horrifying start, though, J.C. just felt apart in a bad way, and Kirk and I bowled 125 and 127 respectively which was enough to win my individual bet with J.C. as well as our team bet. After that, the boys needed to get to bed since they were both still in the tournament.
I hung out at the bowling alley for a while longer before the party moved over to the bar inside the casino. It didn’t take long before a Chinese poker game broke out between the Grinder, myself, Jeff Madsen, and Nenand Medic. Apparently those guys had been up for a gazillion hours, having played Chinese poker all day prior to bowling. That didn’t stop us from playing until about 1:30pm.
Nenand was the biggest joke ever for most of the night. A rush of all rushes, he would turn over straight flushes, quads, etc. like it was easy. Meanwhile, despite not being stuck a lot, I was the only player after hours and hours of play to have no royalties at all!
I finally got my first royalty, a cheap one, full house in the middle, yet still lost money on the hand as I had to look at Jeff’s quads, and of course, not to be outdone, Nenand came prepared with even better quads. Nice.
By around 11:00am we all decided to play the LAST hand of the night for double points. Then we played another LAST hand of the night. Before we knew it, we were playing another LAST hand of the night, only this time for triple points. I still wasn’t doing any better.
Finally, after about 40 “Last hands” of the night I came up with an idea to play the REAL last hand of the night, for 5 times the points. I ended up winning a big one there with a royalty, so of course, we had to play another… last hand of the night.
After another hour of “last hands of the night” I went on a 200 point rush, going from down as many as 68 points to finishing the night +158 points! How we ever got a legitimate last hand of the night to work I’ll never know. It was starting to look like the game would never end, and that’s pretty typical of Chinese poker games. They really are sick adventures of degeneratum at it’s worst! Everyone smells, really, really, bad in some cases, no one has shaved, and everyone looks hung over.
We were also playing in the middle of the casino so occasionally people would drop by and ask for autographs and/or pictures. Nice picture!!! LOL,
When we finally finished, Grinder’s eyes looked like he’d just gone 12 rounds with Balboa.
The next dilemma for all of us was whether or not we should get to the airport. I felt bad for the other people they may have to sit next to so I advised that we sleep it off and get on a plane if we wake up in time for the 9:55pm flight. Well, I didn’t and I don’t think anyone else did.
So, I’m stuck in the room now until the early flight in the morning. I guess I’ll probably be online for most of the night, and eventually will have to take a shower!]]>
Up to $100,000 that I win a bracelet before Hellmuth.
For some background, I likely will be playing the “5pm circuit” and will
skip virtually all of the $1500 and $1000 buy in events, instead opting
for the hi-lo events, limit hold’em events, stud events, etc. The
tournaments I’ll be playing could have very small fields in thw 100-200
player range.
If anyone is interested in making either bet I’m game.”
I came up with 5-1 after a friend of mine told me that he recently bet on himself to win a bracelet this year ans was able to convince some people to give him 13-1. This guy has one bracelet in a non-hold’em event and excels at hi-lo games, draw games, and lowball games.
I told him I thought that his bet was an absolute steal. I made the odds less than half that of winning a bracelet.
A few things to consider:
1) Two events a day- On most days there will be a noon event with a very large field and then a 5pm event that is generally a non-no limit hold’em event with bigger buyins and less players.
2) More non-hold’em events- This helps those players that are comfotable play mixed games. Most pros that were around before “the boom” played all the games.
3) There are more events- The schedule now has 55 events on the schedule. That means a player could comfortably play in about 35 events this year.
4) The no limit hold’em fields will be much bigger than the others- That’s always been true and it will be again this year. For players that don’t excel in mixed games it will be very difficult for them to win a bracelet in an NLH event.
Here’s how I came with 5-1:
For me to show a profit with this bet I’d have to win a bracelet 1 out of every 5 years. If I won one bracelet in 6 years than I’d break even.
With the schedule the way it is now, it benefits my strengths which are non-hold’em tournaments like the hi-lo events and the HORSE events. I imagine that I’d average playing in 25 events a year. So, in order to make a profit with this bet I’d have to win 1 out of my next 125 WSOP events. If I won one out of the next 150 WSOP events I played I’d break even.
I don’t think I’ve ever gone 150 tournaments without a win. In fact, I’m absolutely certain that I haven’t.
When you think about the task of winning a WSOP bracelet in any given year it seems like such an impossible task, but when you look at it the rigth way, you should really be thinking about it in terms of winning one tournament out of 125 events.
I’ll “probably” lose this bet, but it would still be a proffitable bet to make, year to year.
I read through everyone’s “math” in the various threads online and I found it interesting how off they all were. I guess that’s how my buddy was able to get money down at 13-1.
My buddy understood how you need to look at the bet, but when I talked to the people that made the bet they sounded very foolish saying, “Yeah, but the bet is only for one year though.” As if that matters!
They failed to understand that all my friend needed to do was win one event in the next… 14 years!!! to make it a profittable proposition for him.
So anyway, I feel comfortable taking 5-1 odds that I win a bracelet in 2007. Also, because of their so many more non-hold’em events I’d also take a bet against Hellmuth winning a bracelet before me.
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I’m really looking forward to the WSOP this year. The schedule is much better than it’s been in past years and I’m looking forward to playing some tournaments in games other than hold’em.
Also, it’ll be nice to be on a 5pm schedule for the tournamwnts. The tournaments I want to play are usually at 5pm which me allows me to enjoy the sun, and maybe even start golfing again during the day time.
The way the WSOP is set up now, it’s almost as though you have the A circuit and the B circuit. The B circuit would consist of all the $1000 and $1500 buy in events, while the A circuit would consist of the championship events with $5000 buy ins or more (with the exception of the $3000 Stud 8 or better.)
It’s one of the great aspects of the schedule as it appeals to the top professionals but it also gives the “little guy” a chance to be a part of the WSOP experience.
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My WSOP Schedule:
(I likely won’t play in all of these events as I won’t play two at once)
June 1 12pm: $5000 Mixed Hold’em
June 2 12pm: $1500 No Limit Hold’em
June 3 5pm: $2500 Omaha 8/Stud 8
June 4 5pm: $500 Pot Limit Omaha (rebuys)
June 5 12pm: $1000 No Limit Hold’em (rebuys)
June 5 5pm: $1500 Omaha 8
June 6: 5pm: $5000 7 Card Stud
June 7 12pm: $1500 No Limit Hold’em (short handed)
June 8 5pm: $5000 Pot Limit Hold’em
June 9 5pm: $2500 H.O.R.S.E.
June 10 5pm: $5000 Limit Hold’em
June 11 12pm: No Limit Hold’em
June 11 5pm: $2000 Stud 8
June 12 12pm: $1500 No Limit Hold’em (shootout)
June 13 12pm: $5000 No Limit Hold’em
June 14 5pm: $3000 Stud 8
June 15 5pm: $5000 H.O.R.S.E.
June 16 12pm: $1500 No Limit Hold’em
June 17 12pm: $3000 No Limit Hold’em
June 17 5pm: $1500 Razz
June 18 12pm: $2500 No Limit Hold’em (short handed)
June 19 12pm: $5000 No Limit Hold’em (heads up)
June 20 12pm $1500 Pot Limit Omaha (rebuys)
June 20 5pm: $3000 Limit Hold’em
June 21 5pm: $5000 Omaha 8
June 22: DAY OFF
June 23: DAY OFF
June 24 12pm: $50000 H.O.R.S.E.
June 26 12pm: $2000 Limit Hold’em
June 27 12pm: $2000 Omaha 8
June 28 12pm: $5000 No Limit Hold’em (short handed)
June 29 12pm: $2000 No Limit Hold’em
June 29 5pm: $1000 2-7 Triple Draw (rebuys)
June 30 12pm: $1500 No Limit Hold’em
July 1 12pm: $10000 Pot Limit Omaha
July 2 12pm: $1000 No Limit Hold’em (rebuys)
July 3 12pm: $1500 Limit Hold’em (shootout)
July 4 12pm: $5000 2-7 No Limit Single Draw (rebuys)
July 5: DAY OFF
July 6: $10000 No Limit Hold’em Championship (will likely choose day two)
If I completely bomb in every single tournament and never make a second day, that’s a total of 37 events. Most likely, when it’s all said and done, I’ll likely end up playing closer to 27 events.]]>
I’ve really been itching to play poker recently and since I’m home for a bit before my next tournament I thought I’d head down to the Bellagio since I got word that there would be a game.
My sleep schedule is a complete mess right now as I’m waking up at around 4:00pm each day and getting to bed early in the morning. While that sucks normally it worked out well for me on this night since the game was set to get started at 11:00pm and it looked like most of the guys were willing to play until morning.
The game was $2000-$4000 Hold’em, Omaha H/L, Stud, Stud H/L, Stud H/L Regular, 2-7 triple draw, Pot Limit Omaha, 2-7 single draw NL, and Chinese Poker. Lots of fun games in there.
For the early part of the night I was doing very well in the limit games, up probably about 70,000 before losing the following hand that sent me in a tailspin:
Pot Limit Omaha, Jennifer limped for 1000, David limped for 1000, Patrick folded the small blind, and I raised 3500 more from the BB with As Ac 10c 8h. Jennifer and David both called, so there was now $14,000 in the pot. Since we were playing $2000-$4000 rather than $4000-$8000 the cap was only $60,000 so as long as the flop wasn’t too ugly for my hand I was prepared to go with it. The flop came 9s 7s 3c.
That’s not a great flop for me, but it’s a pretty good flop since I have the As which means no one else could have the nut flush draw. I also had an open ended straight draw of my own. I bet the pot, and David called.
The turn was the 4s and there was now $42,000 in the pot and I could bet up to the pot and that would be the end of the betting for the hand since we play with a cap of $60,000. I didn’t love the card obviously, but since I had the As I felt like I should bet it in the hopes of getting David off of a straight or a flush.
I bet $25,000 and David thought for a while. He could only raise me an additional $16,500, but if he did that, I’d have no choice but to fold my hand. After a while he finally said, “All right, cap it.” Doh! I couldn’t even call the last $16,500, but I still think I played the hand very well. David actually had QQ22 with spades. If I bet the cap myself I think he would have called anyway, so betting the $25,000 saved me $16,500 I think.
Right after that I got caught on two consecutive bluffs in 2-7 Single Draw NL. I had trips in my hand and re-raised David from the button. Ralph Perry called and David said cap it…oops.
Two hands later I was dealt 2-3-3-3-10 and decided to “snow” again, making it $5000. Jennifer called and so did David from the BB. David drew two cards, I stood pat, and Jennifer took one.
David checked and I decided to make a bet that looked like I wanted a call, I bet $15,000. Jennifer studied for a long time, before finally calling me with 9-6-5-4-2. Even though I got caught, I still think I was a little unlucky there. If Jennifer missed her hand, that’s a favorite to happen, I would have gotten away with it.
A few hands later I drew to 2-3-6-7 and made a pair. Before I knew it, my profit was gone and I was down about $80,000. I only started with $100,000 and anted off to about $5500 left. I could get more money, but decided to be a little goofy and play it like a tournament. I went all in four times, winning each time, and before I knew it I was even again, lol.
It was an enjoyable session. David and Eli were playing props and were teaching Patrick how to play. Since the last time I played props they added several new wrinkles including “7’s” and “Kings.” Patrick’s props were similar to mine so I didn’t play.
One about the first round of play a flop came 10-5-5. After the hand was over I said, “So no one hit that prop?” David and Eli looked at me like, “Shut your trap!” Patrick slept his Q-10-5 prop. Oh well, that’s the kind of thing that happens when you are just learning and there isn’t a human alive who hasn’t slept a prop once in a while.
While the props was being played, especially with a “new guy” it really slowed the game down to a halt. Every hand was paused and there was bickering back and forth, “That was my King on the last flop and I hit the stiff jack here for doubles.”
“That wasn’t the last flop, the King hit the flop before that. The last flop was Q-10-4.”
“No it wasn’t.”
“Yes it was.”
“No man, are you crazy? The last flop was…. what like K…something.”
“I’m telling you it wasn’t.”
“Jennifer, what was your up card last hand?”
“Huh? Um, it was the Qh.”
“You see, I’m telling you the King was the flop before, you are not on for doubles.”
“Ok, whatever. I still think it was, but whatever.”
That dialogue, or one very similar to that would happen each and every hand.
Despite it all, I was really having a good time playing, especially the hi-lo games. I think my “best game” is Stud 8 or better followed closely by Omaha 8 or better. I enjoy the added variables the game offers as opposed to Hold’em which I often find rather monotonous and boring. With the other games there are more cards, more possibilities, more interesting moves and math problems. The other games keep me thinking while hold’em just doesn’t do that for me as much.
I especially like playing hi-lo games short handed, four or less. I think my edge in those games is heightened when there are less players at the table since in a ring game, a more mechanical approach is required. Short handed hi-lo, though, is a game where lots of hands are playable which makes for even more difficult decisions. I love it.
As much as I love what’s happened with poker over the last few years with the rise of no limit hold’em, I hope poker goes back to the beautiful game that it once was with people playing all sorts of games. The new World Championship of Poker, the $50,000 HORSE event is an excellent step in the right direction.
I predict, and I hope I’m right, that poker will start to head back into that direction and not be so hold’em dominated. If all you play is hold’em, you are missing out. No question about it. No limit hold’em is a complete bore in comparison to a good HORSE game. At least for me it is.
After an 8 hour session where I didn’t swing all that much I ended the night +$19,000. If it wasn’t for the no/pot limit games, I probably would have won close to $200,000.
Having said that, I enjoyed playing PLO with Patrick and David. Early in the morning it was just the three of us playing and I learned a lot about the game from them. They are clearly much better PLO players than I am so I looked at those rounds as learning experiences, clearly feeling like an underdog.
In the hi-lo games and triple draw, I felt like I was in complete control and had a significant edge which balances things out a little bit. In the current mix that we played, barring the Chinese Poker this is where I’d rank the games as far as my strengths go:
1. Stud H/L
2. Omaha H/L
3. 2-7 Triple Draw
4. Limit Hold’em
5. Stud H/L Regular
6. 7 Card Stud
7. Pot Limit Omaha
8. 2-7 No Limit Single Draw
For years, before the poker boom, we routinely played in games that were predominantly hi-lo games and triple draw, often having no hold’em or stud in the mix. I was playing anywhere from $200-$400 to $400-$800 at the time and I learned a lot from those years of grinding it out. I miss playing mixed games, especially in the tournaments.
I’m happy to see more of the events I like at the upcoming WSOP and I feel great about my chances to not only win the HORSE event, but also to win a bracelet in one of the many other non-hold’em events. With the schedule the way it is now, I don’t think I’ll be playing many of the no limit hold’em events, instead opting for the limit hold’em and hi-lo events where I have an even better chance for success.
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Tomorrow I’m doing an all day shoot at Venetian for a project that I’m working on. It’s an early morning call and will take us through till late that night. Then on Wednesday I’ll be back at Venetian for another full day of shooting.
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Cheap Thieves Update: In a previous blog I told you about my one true love, my fantasy hockey pool. Well, I won my first round series against the #1 seed in my conference 4 games to 2 and am now in the conference final against the Red Ravens. I won the first two games of the series, and despite an excellent effort in game 3 and a hat trick from Alexander Semin, the Red Ravens came up huge and won game 3. I think this series will go at least six games as I have a terrible lineup for game 4, but he has a bad lineup for game 5.
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My next tournament will either be in Reno then Foxwoods or Monte Carlo for the EPT final. I haven’t made any final decisions yet although I’m leaning towards Monte Carlo if I can make it work. There may be a few obstacles with me making it down there but I should know soon.
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I spend most of my evenings watching hockey. Not because I’m betting on it, or even that I care all that much who wins on most nights. I watch the games, hoping that “my guys,” the players on my fantasy team will score so that I win the game. I’m in a keeper head-to-head league that I’ve been in for 10+ years now, and I can honestly say that nothing I do is more fun than this pool. I care more about the Alternative Hockey League, than well, winning a million in a poker tournament. Sick, but true. So you are probably thinking that I can win some big money doing this? Well, first prize is usually around $600-$800 depending on the number of transactions during the season. That doesn’t even cover my flight to Toronto for the draft each year. Well, my team went on an amazing run at the end of our regular season, winning the last seven games of the season, settting up a first round match up between my beloved Cheap Thieves and the #1 Seed in the Eddie Shack conference, Shoot Loose. I won the first game 8-1 as my team was clicking on all cylinders. He won game two, and I came back with a win in game #3. In game four, if I had used Alexei Kovalev instead of Lee Stempniak I would be up 3-1 in a best of 7 series with an OT win. That was a tough call, but now it’s 2-2 and game 5 is today. After the morning games I have a lead as his Detroit goalies allowed 6 goals to Boston. Here’s why I’m so annoyed. I’m currently in Vail, Colorado after doing an appearance last night. I stayed late and didn’t have time to double check my lineup for my important game #5. Then today, when I was setting up the “ticker” in the NHL forum (I do that every game night), I noticed that I started the wrong goalies! I used Vancouver at Anahiem, overlooking a much better match up with San Jose at home to the low scoring Edmonton Oilers. That could cost me a crucial game 5 win. On top of that, I lost one of my best players, Simon Gagne to injury, and he joins Anze Kopitar and Mike Johnson on the IR. I have a knot in my stomach. If I lose this game because of this mistake I just don’t know if I’ll ever get over it. I told you that you’d think I’m crazy, lol, but I’m being totally serious. I love this pool more than poker. I love this pool more than golf, or any other hobbies that I have. To lose like this, it would hurt bad, really, really, bad. *************************************************************** Meanwhile, I’m headed to the airport in Denver shortly so I won’t even know how I’m doing until I get to San Jose tonight. I’m headed there for the Bay 101 Shooting Stars tournament, always a fun tournament. Matt Savage also let me know that we’ve got tickets to the Sharks/Blackhawks game on Tuesday. That’ll be fun. I drew day one, which means I get Tuesday off while the other half of the players play. While I’m looking forward to the tournament, I’m not going to lie to, I will be distracted by my pool and that’s just the way it is. Luckily, I don’t have a pool game on Monday, game 6 is on Tuesday. As insane it sounds, this pool really is more important to me. Always has been, and I think it always will be.]]>
FCP forums recently and was left confused after reading it: D’Amato Shows Poker Face. Before writing this piece I doubt that Kreidler did much research. About the PPA, he says, “a group you’ve never heard of that nevertheless is committed to doing God’s work by protecting the rights of card players everywhere to lose money online.” Nowhere in his column does he make mention of the many players that make their living through playing online poker. The piece just gets worse from there. He quotes D’Amato as saying that you don’t have 70 million people participating in baseball. Then, he goes on to infer that D’Amato is being dishonest by saying that a recent PPA release mentioned that only 23 million people play online poker. Not sure if you are aware of this Mr. Kriedler, but you can actually play poker in casinos in America, at your home with friends, as well as the internet. When you add that figure up, about 70 million people in this country play poker. Mr.Kreidler then went on to write, “meaning Al has a bunch of Friday night garages to fill if he’s going to get his sport up to 70 million nationally. But why let all that cigar smoke get in the way of a good story?” The truth is being distorted, but it’s not D’Amato that
ROUND of 32:
Jeff Madsen over Shannon Elizabeth
Jeff and Shannon know each other well, but I think that probably gives Jeff the edge.
Erick Lindgren over Carlos Mortensen
These guys know each other very, very, well, but I think Erick is more focused on poker right now and is playing great.
Marco Traniello over Erik Seidel
Another upset pick here. I just think that Marco has a very difficult style to play against and will cause lots of top players problems. He’s just a tough guy to read because he makes plays that often don’t make much sense!
Huck Seed over Chip Reese
Chip is an awesome player obviously, but I actually think Huck is a more experienced heads up player. Plus, I think Huck has something to prove in this tournament.
Tuan Le over Cyndy Violette
Tuan is another guy with something to prove and his aggressive style might be a little too much for Cyndy to handle.
Eli Elezra over Joe Hachem
I think Eli’s style is the one style that might work well against a player like Joe.
Ted Forrest over Gus Hansen
I see a trap coming here. I think Ted will play pretty straight forward here and hope that Gus makes a mistake.
Nam Le over Jeff Shulman
Like I said before, I think Nam is a wonderful player. I think he may be able to trap Jeff early in this match.
Jennifer Harman over Allen Cunningham
I just have a feeling here and am going with what has to be considered an upset in this format. Allen has a lot more experience playing no limit hold’em.
John Juanda over Daniel Negreanu
I rarely ever beat that guy a pot so why would I start now? LOL, actually I figure that I might as well pick someone other than myself to win, becuase if I win the whole thing I’ll be happy anyway. Also, I don’t match up very well against John Juanda at all. He is a much better player than me in the late stages of these matches.
Johnny Chan over Gavin Smith
I think Chan will look to trap Gavin, and that’s what Gavin will want to do to Johnny. Johnny is a tough guy to trap, though, so I’m betting on Chan.
Jamie Gold over Scotty Nguyen
I just think that Gold’s aggressive approach will give him a chance in every match he plays. Scotty will try to get his money in good, obviously, but he’ll have to make sure he doesn’t wait too long to do that.
Kristi Gazes over Isabelle Mercier
I have a good feeling about Kristi here. She is playing with loads of confidence right now and it’s always tough to beat someone that feels like they are playing great.
Phil Ivey over Scott Fischman
If Phil is able to get by Don Cheadle, he could go a long way.
David Williams over Brad Booth
I have another “feeling” here and I think David is bound to get some luck going his way.
Todd Brunson over Yosh Nakano
Todd is a very good heads up player and I think he should be favored over Yosh.
ROUND OF 16:
Erik Lindgren over Jeff Madsen
Revenge will be on the mind in this match, as the last time these two faced off Jeff won a WSOP bracelet and kept Erick from getting his first.
Huck Seed over Marco Traniello
The fairy tale ends here for Marco. Huck has the perfect style to hamper Marco’s unorthodox approach. Huck will keep the pots small and allow Marco to lead the betting. Playing possum all the way, waiting for Marco to bluff at the wrong pot.
Tuan Le over Eli Elezra
This could be a wild one! Both aggressive player, but I’m giving the nod to Tuan.
Ted Forrest over Nam Le
Nam is a great player, but Ted is better heads up in my opinion. More experience, he’s been there before, and I think he’ll come out on top.
John Juanda over Jennifer Harman
I think John has an edge in no limit hold’em and he may end up having a good read on Jennifer.
Johnny Chan over Jamie Gold
Student doesn’t beat teacher on the big stage. Johnny might use the following line, “Kid, I taught you everything that YOU know, but I didn’t teach you everything that I know!”
Phil Ivey over Kristi Gazes
Kristi can be extremely confident right now, but that’s not going to scare Ivey.
David Williams over Todd Brunson
Todd is a better player in my opinion, but his game doesn’t match up well with a player like David I don’t think. I could see David busting Todd here, where Todd takes some kind of sick beat, lol.
QUARTER FINALS:
Erick Lindgren over Huck Seed
Revenge from last year when Huck beat Erick
Ted Forrest over Tuan Le
First he takes out Nam, then he deals with Tuan.
John Juanda over Johnny Chan
Juanda has the perfect game to give Chan fits. He won’t allow Chan to control the pace of the game.
David Williams over Phil Ivey
Like I said, I have a feeling about David. I think he will go into the match knowing that he’ll need to press the action to beat Phil. That’s going to force Phil to pick up a hand, and then have it hold up.
SEMI FINALS:
Erick Lindgren over Ted Forrest
How many matches in a row can you win? Ted has to lose eventually, I’m picking the semi finals for him to exit.
John Juanda over David Williams
This is a tough match for David to win. John’s approach works well against David and I think John will win.
FINALS:
Erick Lindgren over John Juanda
Expect it to go down to the wire with lots of bad beats in both directions. In the end, E-DOG wins….
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Ok, so things didn’t exactly go as planned, LOL. Here is how I see things going after two complete rounds:
Barry Greenstein over Shannon Elizabeth
Huck Seed over Humberto Brenes
Paul Wasicka over TJ Cloutier
Ted Forrest over Nam Le
Mike Matusow over Andy Bloch
Gavin Smith over Phil Gordon
Scott Fischman over Kristi Gazes
Brad Booth over Chad Brown
QUARTER FINAL
Huck Seed over Barry Greenstein
Ted Forrest over Paul Wasicka
Gavin Smith over Mike Matusow
Brad Booth over Scott Fischman
SEMI FINAL
Huck Seed over Ted Forrest
Brad Booth over Gavin Smith
FINAL
Huck Seed over Brad Booth]]>
I always get excited for this event. It’s just a lot of fun for me and I’m addicted to brackets of any kind. This year, like last year, there will be a $1000 buy in bracket pool for this year’s event. It works like this:
You fill out an entire bracket, with every match all the way to the finals. For example, if it was an 8 man bracket you’d do this:
Quarter-Final Semi-Final Final Champion
Johnny Chan Johnny Chan
Kathy Liebert
J.C Tran J.C. Tran J.C Tran
Phil Laak
J.C Tran
Phil Ivey
Ted Forrest Ted Forrest Ted Forrest
Patrick Antonious Patrick Antonious
David Benyamine
You pick every match-up. Every time you have the right player in the right spot you receive points. For a field of 64 players, the point structure goes like this:
Round of 64 win: 1 points
Round of 32 win: 2 points
Round of 16 win: 3 points
Quarter-Final win: 5 points
Semi-Final win: 7 points
Finals win: 10 points
You end up picking the winners of 63 matches, and that all has to happen before the start of the first match. As in the previous example, if you picked Ted Forrest over Patrick Antonius, but Ted Forrest beats David Benyamine instead, that still counts as a win for you. All you need to have is the right winner in any square.
Unfortunately, the only way to enter is to either be at the drawing party tomorrow night (not open to the public), or, be down at the event before it starts.
Whoever’s bracket gets the most points wins the pool. Depending on the number of entrants, more than one place will be paid:
2-10 entrants: 1 prizes 100%
11-20 entrants: 2 prizes 70%-30%
21-30 entrants: 3 prizes 50%-30%-20%
31-40 entrants: 4 prizes 50%-25%-15%-10%
41-50 entrants: 5 prizes 45%-24%-14%-10%-7%
Last year some people didn’t pay and it ended up costing me a few bucks, so this year, if you want it, I need to see some greenbacks first!
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I’m back in Vegas now after my aces got cracked in two out of three hands. Anthony Mak, in his first tournament did exceptionally well. He made it very deep into day three of the event before bowing out short stacked. The kid fought really hard and I was proud of him. He has so little experience, but he is an absolute natural in every sense of the word.
Anyway, when I got knocked out of the tournament I watched the Oscars before heading to my buddies place to play X-BOX 360. What a blast I had. Seriously, one of the most fun nights I’ve had in a long time. Oren and I played against Regev and Steve and we trounced them in NBA Live and FIFA. While Oren and Regev are FIFA master, it was yours truly that scored the only goal of the match.
In basketball, I turned the Heat into a run and gun team to get into the finals of our mini-tournament. Regev chose the Pistons and was determined to play half court basketball. Despite being down 9 early, I ended up having a shot to win it, and lost by 1. That one hurt.
Oren sucked as a partner but we still won. I was literally yelling at him every time he touched the ball, “PUSH IT MAN! PASS! YOU ALWAYS PASS TO YOURSELF! SHAQ IS OPEN YOU IDIOT!!!” It was so much fun. After we played games Oren showed me this video called, “The Secret.”
Then for some bizarre reason, that sparked like a five hour drunken discussion about God and whether he exists or not. He was being so dumb, and I was probably being dumber. I’m sure neither of us made any sense at all. He would say, “That’s the way it is man, it’s stats. It’s all about the stats.” Huh? What the….? I would come back with, “Can you prove anything you say? Prove it, come on man, prove it!” And so on, and so on. We didn’t get out of there until 9:00am.
Anyway, back to the Oscars show. When I watched it, it brought back a lot of old memories from my childhood. When I was really young I wanted to be a child actor. I did a lot of extra work until I heard about an NBC talent hunt, where over 1000 kids under 14 showed up. I was one of them.
We auditioned for a role in the “Adventures of Pippi Longstocking.” I was supposed to pretend I was Tommy, walking on a tight rope and chasing after Pippi. In my group, there were 50 kids and they had me go first.
When I was done, he stopped everything and told the rest of the crew, “That was perfect. That’s exactly what we are looking for.”
Later that day I did an interview when I was 12 year old with the local television network, Global. They asked me what I was doing there and how I thought my chances were of becoming a star. I remember it like it was yesterday. I still have the tape somewhere. This is what a cocky 12 year old me said, “I have no doubt in my mind that I’ll be a star.” The interviewer replied, “Really, what makes you so confident.”
“Well, they really liked my audition and I just don’t have any doubt whatsoever that I’m going to make it.”
They called back six boys and I was one of them. I auditioned again and thought I did extremely well. I didn’t get called back and that was a tough pill to swallow at that age. I later found out that the movie wasn’t being made, though, and that made me feel a little better about it. I was proud of being called back, but even at that age, I didn’t like “losing” at all.
My mother knew how passionate I was about acting, so she looked into getting me a talent agent to do auditions. I remember it like it was yesterday. We walked into this guys office and I had Goosebumps. The agent, his name was Rodney, walked in a bit late saying, “Sorry I’m late, I just flew in from LA. Was on a shoot there.” He then showed us some pictures from his trip and I was pretty blown away.
Rodney took a liking to me and I quickly felt like he really saw talent in me. Also, that he would be able to help me get some real work, not just the extra work I’d been doing.
He then tells me that he wants me to pretend that I’m Jay Schroeder, the younger brother of Silver Spoons star Ricky Schroeder. We even got my hair cut like his, and I practiced signing his name.
He told me that he wanted me to help him with an audition he was holding that week, and that he wanted me to pretend I was Jay Schroeder. At the time, being 12 years old, none of this seemed strange to me at all.
The audition was for an Oliver Twist movie. I wasn’t auditioning, I was just in the room with him meeting the kids who came in. Each kid paid $5 to audition. They’d do their audition and I’d sign an autograph for them. How bizarre is that? The first autograph I ever signed was “Jay Schroeder.”
After about an hour and a half of auditions, the police entered the room. I was so scared and didn’t even know why. This undercover lady cop came over to me to take care of me. By that point I was crying and said something like, “Is he going up the river?”
The lady and two other undercover cops took me to the Pizza Hut next door for lunch and to comfort me. They asked me what he told me to do and I told them everything.
The guy was a complete fraud. I never wanted to believe it, but he was. My mother actually questioned me about him once, not sure if he was legit. Her reasoning? He had a hole in his sock. Let that be a lesson to you, always trust a mother’s instincts!
I later had to testify in court against him. I remember the lawyer, my dad called them liars, was asking me questions on the stand. He asked me the same question a different way like four times. “So Daniel, when did this happen, before or after? Did you do that before or after that. What happened first, this or that? Are you sure?”
He actually got me to question myself. I guess in an attempt to discredit me. Rodney didn’t get off the hook and I actually saw him about six months later. I was walking home from the Plaza when I saw him in his car at a stop light.
He called me over and tried to explain to me that he’s legit now and that he is rebuilding his agency. I ran away from the car and never saw the dude again.
Man, I haven’t told that story in like 15 years….
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I will be doing a video blog from the drawing party which should be fun. Dexter will not be making an appearance, lol.]]>
No kidding man, the Commerce is just the nuts for a poker player. No, they aren’t paying me to say that, lol.
Anyway, I decided to fly out on the day of the event since it wasn’t scheduled to start until 3:30pm. The reason they do late starts in LA is so that they can accommodate the many people in the area who actually have a day job!
I flew into Burbank at around 1:30pm and my high school buddies (Regev & Oren), and best men at my wedding along with Erick Lindgren, picked me up at the airport. I was so stoked that Regev won a seat in the main event. He doesn’t play poker for a living and I’ve known him from before I started playing. In fact, the first poker I ever played was with him in his basement.
Regev is a wicked smart dude that could be a professional poker player if he wanted to. When I first moved out to Vegas, he was out there too grinding it out. It just wasn’t for him though. It wasn’t a lack of talent that killed him, I think it was just the lifestyle that didn’t suit him.
Anyway, so we drove to the Wyndham to check in, then I needed to go “on the borrow.” I was late leaving for my flight after taking Mushu over to my mother’s house, so I didn’t have enough time to go to the Bellagio and get money. I arrived in LA with a grand total of $500!
As I was checking in and random people were saying hello, my only comment was, “You got $10,000? Anyone got $10,000?” When I made it over to the Commerce I was asking some more random people for $10,000 when it literally flew at me from about 15 yards away. Brad Booth threw a $10,000 brick high into the air towards me from behind. I saw it just in time and had myself a buy in! By the way Brad, you suck at counting money! There was $11,200 in that bundle, thanks for the tip.
Anthony Mak drove over with me, Regev & Oren to the Commerce from the Wyndam. Anthony was given a copy of my notes for my upcoming book and we discussed that a little bit. He had a few concerns but we got that all squared away. I can’t share with you all what we talked about as I don’t want to affect his chances in this tournament or in upcoming tournaments.
I started out in the tent, but after a few levels our table broke and I made it back into the main room. The structure at Commerce was excellent:
20,000 in starting chips and 90 minute levels
25-50
50-100
100-200
100-200 (25)
150-300 (25)
200-400 (50)
300-600 (75)
400-800 (100)
500-1000 (100)
600-1200 (200)
800-1600 (200)
1000-2000 (300)
1200-2400 (300)
1500-3000 (400)
Attention all tournament directors… THIS is how it’s done. Forget all about the 75 minute levels, all that does is cause for longer days with less play. Meaning, if you take a break after ever 75 minutes you end up taking more breaks during the day. A break after 90 minutes is more than enough and doesn’t stretch out the day longer than need be.
Matt Savage actually likes to add even one more level, a level we say at the Borgata as well (another good structure), the 250-500 level. I obviously love the additional level, but if it means switching to 75 minute levels I’d rather not have that level.
As for the tournament, I played well. I was reading weakness in my opponents exceptional well and made several “plays” taking pots from opponents that were on the steal. Everything was cruising right along.
I flopped a flush against a set and was up to 38,000. Then I lost a few small pots here and there where my opponents hit the flop. Then disaster hit. With blinds at 100-200 I made it 500 to go with AA. Nick Schulman called on the button as did the big blind.
The flop came Qh 9c 8h. The BB checked and I bet 1000. Nick called, and I was pretty sure he didn’t hit the flop solid. I felt as though he had a piece of it, but that my AA were still good.
The BB folded and the turn came the 6s. I wanted to protect my hand against all of the potential draws out there, so I bet 3000. Nick immediately raised me to 9000. Now I was in a very tough spot as I could easily be drawing dead. However, there were also a lot of hands that Nick could have where he wasn’t there yet and I had the best hand. A pair and a flush draw. A pair and a straight draw. A straight flush draw, or even a pair, straight draw, and flush draw.
Looking over at Nick’s chips I noticed that he had about 19,000 left. Feeling like I was ahead, I decided to put him all in. He called instantly… oops! He turned over the 10-7. That off suit 6 on the turn was my death card. No other card could cost me all of those chips. A Jack and I check the turn. A heart and I probably check the turn. The 6 only filled one possible hand, and wouldn’t you know it, that’s what Nick had.
The very next hand I folded. The very next hand, with just 1025 left in chips, I picked up AA again! This time I limped in for 200 under the gun, hoping to get some action and either double or triple up if possible. Another player limped in from middle position and both blinds were in. The flop looked “ok” for my hand… As 6d 4h. The blinds checked and I checked to the limper who bet 450. The small blind called, so I went all in for 375 more-both players called.
The turn was a 9 and both players checked. The river was a 2 and the SB checked to the limper… he reached for chips and I almost got up and walked away… he bet 2000 and I knew. The SB folded and the limper turned over 3-5 for the straight.
In hindsight, I could have played the AA against Nick more cautiously, but I couldn’t exactly just fold on the turn when he raised me. I should have probably smooth called and maybe saved a bet on the river. In fact, had I played the hand like I normally would, I’d probably still be in. The river was a 7, so it would have been impossible for me to call and I’d still have an average stack. Overall I’d say it was a mistake. Thing is, you are just bound to make more mistakes against great players since it’s more difficult to put them on hands. Nick is a great player and has shown a willingness to bluff in all kinds of situations, so he really earned those chips from me.
Now, I would have posted this blog sooner, but I’ve been having some serious issues over here at the Wyndam:
1. Internet Connection- The high speed in my room wouldn’t work. I called Wayport, nothing. I called the front desk and they had a technician come to my room…nothing. They just couldn’t get it fixed at all.
2. Water Machine- I went to go get a bottle of water out of the machine. The machine is rather finicky, it won’t take bills and it won’t take coins. It only takes credit cards. I had three cards with me…. and none of them worked. The machine was broken.
3. Room change- at 8:30am this morning another tech guy walked into my room, waking me up. He tried fixing the internet… but nothing. Finally, they had me change rooms. I requested a room change last night, but they had no rooms available. I get to my new room and the internet works.
4. Television- I was laughing at this point at how ridiculous things were getting. While the internet worked in my new room, the TV was busted. The tech comes out again, me and him are like buddies now although I don’t really understand him very well. His English isn’t very good and my Spanish is pretty weak. Anyway, he fixed the TV so now I’m all set.
I’m planning on staying in LA. My buddy Regev is out of the tournament, but Anthony Mak has made an excellent come back and is now sitting on about 25,000 in chips. He was down to about 7,000, but didn’t quit and caught a few hands just in time.
We had dinner together and went over some of the key hands he played. He described each hand to me and he has played everyone perfectly. Kid is like a sponge. To really grasp what’s going on here, it’s important to note that this kid won the prot
I have been very, very, lazy recently. Going to bed very late and waking up even later. Not the best schedule for the WPT event in LA, but I think I’ll manage just fine. I’m either driving or flying to LA tomorrow, I still haven’t decided. When I get there, I’m going to give Anthony Mak, the new prot